Colorado State University (CSU) has updated its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting an even more active season than initially anticipated. Released on Tuesday, the revised outlook now expects 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). This update represents an increase of two named storms, one hurricane, and one major hurricane from the previous forecast.

This forecast is significantly above the 30-year average and markedly higher than the 2023 season, which saw 20 storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The forecast includes the three named storms already observed this season, with Hurricane Beryl being the first.

Early-Season Activity and Beryl's Significance

Hurricane Beryl's early formation in the deep tropics and rapid intensification east of the Lesser Antilles could indicate a highly active season. According to CSU meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, Beryl was particularly notable for generating the most Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of any pre-August 1 hurricane on record. Historically, seasons with such powerful early storms tend to have above-average activity.

Ahead of Schedule

The season is progressing faster than usual, with Beryl (first hurricane) and Chris (third named storm) forming well ahead of the typical schedule. The average third tropical storm forms by August 3, and the first hurricane by August 11.

 

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Source: weather.com