News & Publications
2023 Hurricane Season Outlook Update: Record Atlantic Ocean Warmth Could Override El Niño Influence
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season may be one of the most active for any El Niño season on record, due to record-warm Atlantic Ocean water temperatures, according to the latest outlook.
An update released Thursday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 calls for 20 total storms, 10 of which are expected to become hurricanes and five of which will reach at least Category 3 status.
This is an increase of three storms, one hurricane and one major hurricane since their previous outlook, which was released in mid-June. The increase in storms and the overall outlook takes into account five storms that have already occurred this year.
This is similar to a forecast released earlier in July by the Colorado State University tropical forecast team, and is well above the latest 30-year average tallies.
Don formed in July, Arlene, Bret and Cindy formed in June and an unnamed subtropical storm developed in January that was retroactively upgraded by the National Hurricane Center in May.
The fifth storm of the season doesn't typically arrive until late August, according to the NHC.
Two major factors are in play this hurricane season: a strengthening El Niño and extremely warm Atlantic water temperatures.